Yaxel Lendeborg

Golden State Warriors · F · #1

MIA @ GS · Thu, Nov 5 10:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals+Blocks, typical price −1504 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler

Under 1.5 Steals+Blocks hit in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).

at LAL, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 29 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 37 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 36 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 24 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 34 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 2, missed, 29 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals+blocks.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2026–27: 31.9 (8 games)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L8

Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting

L8 · Without Butler · Under 1.5

Average: 1.4; −0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −127 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L8 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−4203 books	—	1/8
+1104 books	−1502 books	5/8
+3253 books	—	7/8

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals+Blocks, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings8 hr ago	−105	−127Best
betPARX8 hr ago	+110Best	−150
Bally Bet8 hr ago	+110Best	—
BetRivers8 hr ago	+110Best	—

Prices as of 10:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Yaxel Lendeborg's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:08 PM ET.