How dane.bet works
Research for every game and player line, and the few bets worth their price. Information only, not a sportsbook: we take no bets and hold no money.
Reading a game
Every game gets one verdict, a colour and a word:
- Bet
- Our chance beats the price, and bets like it have beaten the closing price before.
- Lean
- Our number beats the price, but bets like it haven't proven themselves yet. Not a bet.
- Pass
- The price isn't worth it, or we have no number of our own. The row says which.
A bet shows our chance (how often we think it wins), worth it to (the longest price still worth taking) and the price now.
A model pick is where our number disagrees with the market. A price pick is where a book pays more than the fair market price. We start from the market's price and move it only as far as our model has earned.
One line, from every book
We read the lines from every sportsbook and pick'em app we can, for every game and player. The line we show is the consensus: the one most books are posting right now, so always a real line (23.5, never 23.08), with the typical price there and how many sportsbooks post it.
Each book's own line and price is one tap away under “Compare sportsbooks” on the game and prop pages. A price we haven't seen in the last 30 minutes is never shown as current.
Player lines are research, not picks
Every player line shows how often it cleared (the last 10 games, the season, at home or away, against the opponent), the opponent's defense against that position, and our chance where we have one. None of them is a pick: player lines have lost money at posted prices, so they stay research until bets like them beat the closing price.
A line is listed only while a book or a pick'em app posts it. A pro player who is ruled out is never listed.
Where the numbers come from
Prices come from the sportsbooks' and apps' public pages, read every few minutes or faster. Schedules, scores, box scores, rosters and injuries come from ESPN. Hit rates, streaks and defense against each position are counted from those box scores.
We cover the NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB and WNBA, and college football and men's college basketball.
Every pick is graded in public
The record grades every pick, losses included. Each one was logged by the system before its game, at the price shown, and is never edited. First we show whether our price beat the closing price, then the money at 1 unit a pick with its 95% range. Our earlier model's record is kept in the archive, exactly as it was graded.
What dane.bet isn't
It isn't a sportsbook, a bet tracker or a tipster service, and it doesn't promote any sportsbook. There is no paid plan and no public odds API.
21+, and play safe
dane.bet is for adults 21 and older, where sports betting is legal. Betting can be addictive. If it stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org.