Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Under 7.5
50%4 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Under 7.5 Rebounds hit in 4 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–12.2 rebounds.
What's different today
Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 7.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 7.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 7.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 19.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 14th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Under 7.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 7.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Under 7.5
- Average
- 7
- −0.5 vs line
- Median
- 7
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 59%
- at −141
- Books’ fair
- 54%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 55%
- estimate · fair −124
Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −124, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2865 books | — | 4/8 | |
| −1595 books | — | 4/8 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 4/8 | |
| +1056 books | −1415 books | 4/8 | |
| +1655 books | — | 4/8 | |
| +2605 books | — | 6/8 | |
| +3905 books | — | 6/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings4 min ago | −102 | −130Best |
| FanDuel1 min ago | +106 | −136 |
| betPARX2 min ago | +105 | −141 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +105 | −141 |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | +114Best | −151 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | +105 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
7.5Under: −158 → −141 since first seen