Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 30.5
63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Over 30.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 11.5–49.1 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Over 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 30.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 30.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 30.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 71.8 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 30.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 30.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Over 30.5
- Average
- 32.4
- +1.9 vs line
- Median
- 36.5
- +6 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −108, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −3455 books | — | 6/8 | |
| −1701 book | +1301 book | 5/8 | |
| −1375 books | +1101 book | 5/8 | |
| −1157 books | −1176 books | 5/8 | |
| +1001 book | −1301 book | 5/8 | |
| +1201 book | −1601 book | 5/8 | |
| +1655 books | — | 5/8 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 30.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 30.5 | Under 30.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −104Best | −122 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −115 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −115 | −117 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −115 | −117 |
| Bovada4 min ago | −120 | −110 |
| DraftKings5 min ago | −122 | −108Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
30.5−108 → −115 since first seen