Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 18.5
50%4 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Over 18.5 Points cleared in 4 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 7.2–33.6 points.
What's different today
Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 18.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 41.9 points a game to forwards: 17th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 18.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 18.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Over 18.5
- Average
- 21.5
- +3 vs line
- Median
- 22
- +3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −132
- Books’ fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 54%
- estimate · fair −116
Research, not a pick. At −128 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −116, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2655 books | +2051 book | 6/8 | |
| −2202 books | +1601 book | 5/8 | |
| −1656 books | +1251 book | 5/8 | |
| −1326 books | −1025 books | 4/8 | |
| −1086 books | −1252 books | 4/8 | |
| +1202 books | −1601 book | 4/8 | |
| +1385 books | −1901 book | 4/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 18.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 18.5 | Under 18.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −128Best | +100Best |
| Bovada4 min ago | −130 | +100Best |
| Pinnacle4 min ago | −130 | −102 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −132 | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −132 | −103 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −132 | −103 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
18.5−130 → −132 since first seen