Yaxel Lendeborg

Golden State Warriors · F · #1

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Assists, typical price −1416 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler

Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).

at LAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 29 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 6, cleared, 37 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 36 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 1, missed, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 24 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 6, cleared, 34 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 5, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
MIA allow 10.5 assists a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 3.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L8

Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting

L8 · Without Butler · Over 3.5

Average: 3.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 5; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 59%; at −141
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −126

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −126, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L8 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−12504 books	—	6/8
−3455 books	—	5/8
−1416 books	+1055 books	5/8
+1505 books	—	5/8
+2955 books	—	3/8
+5255 books	—	0/8
+9005 books	—	0/8

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−132Best	+100
FanDuel5 min ago	−138	+108Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−141	—
betPARX5 min ago	−141	+105
BetRivers4 min ago	−141	+105
Pinnacle5 min ago	−143	+108Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −138 → −141 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Yaxel Lendeborg's full game log and splits