Yaxel Lendeborg

Golden State Warriors · F · #1

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Under 11.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1366 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler

Under 11.5 Reb+Ast hit in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).

at LAL, 2026-10-21: 5, hit, 29 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 19, missed, 37 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 14, missed, 36 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 18, missed, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 10, hit, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 1, hit, 24 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 10, hit, 34 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 10, hit, 29 min

Under hitMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.4–18.1 reb+ast.

What's different today

Under 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 11.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 11.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 11.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2026–27: 31.9 (8 games)

Splits

Under 11.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 11.5 · L8

Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting

L8 · Without Butler · Under 11.5

Average: 10.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 10; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L8 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−2255 books	+1751 book	2/8
−1501 book	+1151 book	5/8
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/8
+1056 books	−1364 books	5/8
+3105 books	—	6/8
+7501 book	—	6/8
+14002 books	—	8/8

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
Bovada1 min ago	+100	−130Best
DraftKings2 min ago	−101	−130Best
FanDuel1 min ago	+106Best	−136
betPARX1 min ago	+105	−141
Bally Bet2 min ago	+105	—
BetRivers1 min ago	+105	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:49 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

10.5 → 11.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Yaxel Lendeborg's full game log and splits