Yaxel Lendeborg

Golden State Warriors · F · #1

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1593 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).

at LAL, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 29 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 37 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 0, missed, 36 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 24 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 1, cleared, 34 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
MIA allow 4.6 steals a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L8

Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting

L8 · Without Butler · Over 0.5

Average: 0.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: 61%; at −159
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −141

Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −141, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L8 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L8
	−1593 books	+1171 book	5/8
	+2803 books	—	1/8

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet3 min ago	−159Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−159Best	+117Best
BetRivers2 min ago	−159Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:26 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Yaxel Lendeborg's full game log and splits