Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 26.5
63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Over 26.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 10.1–43.1 pts+reb.
What's different today
Over 26.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 26.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 26.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 26.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2026–27: 31.9 (8 games)
Splits
Over 26.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 26.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Over 26.5
- Average
- 28.5
- +2 vs line
- Median
- 33
- +6.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −5005 books | — | 6/8 | |
| −1755 books | — | 5/8 | |
| −1351 book | +1051 book | 5/8 | |
| −1186 books | −1154 books | 5/8 | |
| +1051 book | −1351 book | 5/8 | |
| +1405 books | — | 5/8 | |
| +3005 books | — | 4/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 26.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 26.5 | Under 26.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −112Best | −118 |
| Bovada2 min ago | −115 | −115 |
| DraftKings2 min ago | −115 | −114Best |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −118 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −118 | −114Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −118 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
26.5−110 → −118 since first seen