Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 23.5
63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Over 23.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 8.5–39.2 pts+ast.
What's different today
Over 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2026–27: 31.9 (8 games)
Splits
Over 23.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 23.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Over 23.5
- Average
- 25.4
- +1.9 vs line
- Median
- 25.5
- +2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 50%
- at +100
- Books’ fair
- 47%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 51%
- estimate · fair −105
Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −105, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2355 books | — | 6/8 | |
| −1601 book | +1201 book | 5/8 | |
| −1302 books | −1042 books | 5/8 | |
| +1005 books | −1273 books | 5/8 | |
| +1205 books | — | 4/8 | |
| +2905 books | — | 3/8 | |
| +8502 books | — | 2/8 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks at 23.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 23.5 | Under 23.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet4 min ago | +100Best | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | +100Best | −136 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | +100Best | — |
| DraftKings4 min ago | −103 | −127 |
| Bovada4 min ago | −105 | −125Best |
Prices as of 5:29 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
23.522.5 → 23.5 since first seen