Yaxel Lendeborg

Golden State Warriors · F · #1

MIA @ GS · Thu, Nov 5 10:00 PM

Over Under23.5

—2 pick'em apps, no priceUpdated

63%5 of 8L8 · Without Butler

Over 23.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 5 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).

at LAL, 2026-10-21: 14, missed, 29 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 24, cleared, 37 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 31, cleared, 36 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 37, cleared, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 27, cleared, 35 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 6, missed, 24 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 43, cleared, 34 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 21, missed, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 23.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 8.5–39.2 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

YesterdayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 23.5 without him: 5 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.6 min · 2026–27: 31.9 (8 games)

Splits

Over 23.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 23.5 · L8

Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting

L8 · Without Butler · Over 23.5

Average: 25.4; +1.9 vs line
Median: 25.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 63%; 5 of 8
Price implies: —; 2 pick'em apps, no price
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. No sportsbook prices the Over 23.5 right now; it's posted on 2 pick'em apps. Our fair price is −111.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L8 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L8
	pick'em only	pick'em only	5/8

Compare 2 pick'em apps at 23.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 23.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 23.5	Under 23.5
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

23.5

22.5 → 23.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Yaxel Lendeborg's full game log and splits

This page last updated 10:10 PM ET.