Yaxel Lendeborg
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 19.5
50%4 of 8L8 · Without Butler
Over 19.5 Points cleared in 4 of 8 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 8 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 7.2–33.6 points.
What's different today
Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 19.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 19.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 19.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: no games (8 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 41.9 points a game to forwards: 17th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 19.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 19.5 · L8Stephen CurryG
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Brandin PodziemskiG
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Lendeborg didn't play the Jan 19 meeting
L8 · Without Butler · Over 19.5
- Average
- 21.5
- +2 vs line
- Median
- 22
- +2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 4 of 8
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −107
- Books’ fair
- 48%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 50%
- estimate · fair −101
Research, not a pick. At +104 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −101, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L8 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2152 books | +1601 book | 5/8 | |
| −1626 books | +1251 book | 5/8 | |
| −1303 books | −1023 books | 4/8 | |
| −1076 books | −1254 books | 4/8 | |
| +1202 books | −1601 book | 4/8 | |
| +1405 books | −1901 book | 4/8 | |
| +1802 books | −2451 book | 4/8 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 19.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 19.5 | Under 19.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | +104Best | — |
| DraftKings2 min ago | −104 | −123Best |
| Bovada2 min ago | −105 | −125 |
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −107 | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | −107 | −125 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −108 | −127 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:19 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
19.518.5 → 19.5 since first seen