Marcus Smart
BOS @ HOU · Mon, Nov 2 8:30 PM
Game log against Over 11.5
80%8 of 10L10
Over 11.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 8.1–27.6 pts+reb+ast.
No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.
L10 · Over 11.5
- Average
- 17.4
- +5.9 vs line
- Median
- 15.5
- +4 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −117
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 63%
- estimate · fair −171
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −171, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −24001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −2004 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1175 books | −1144 books | 8/10 | |
| +1754 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +6501 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +17601 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 11.5 | Under 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet20 hr ago | −115Best | — |
| betPARX20 hr ago | −115Best | −115 |
| BetRivers20 hr ago | −117 | −117 |
| DraftKings21 hr ago | −117 | −113 |
| FanDuel20 hr ago | −122 | −104Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
11.5No opening line kept for this market yet.
No line history recorded for this market yet.
What moved our number
Pace−0.6%
This page last updated 8:37 PM ET.