Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

BOS @ HOUCeltics @ Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET

The line

Over 9.5 Pts+Reb

−1026 sportsbooksbest +105

Game log

Over 9.5

Over 9.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs HOU: 16, cleared
at HOU: 14, cleared
at OKC: 16, cleared
at OKC: 18, cleared
vs OKC: 13, cleared
vs OKC: 7, missed
vs DAL: 12, cleared
at SA: 8, missed
at DAL: 10, cleared
vs OKC: 29, cleared

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 5.7–22.1 pts+reb.

Home and away

L10 · Over 9.5

Hometonight

80%

4 of 5

Away

80%

4 of 5

L10 · Over 9.5 Pts+Reb

Average: 14.3; +4.8 vs line
Median: 13.5; +4 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 50%; −102, 6 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At +105 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −149, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
Bovada7 min ago	+105Best	−135
DraftKings11 min ago	+101	−132
FanDuel1 min ago	−102	−125Best
Bally Bet7 min ago	−103	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−103	—
betPARX7 min ago	−104	−132
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price