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Marcus Smart
BOS @ HOUCeltics @ Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET
The line
Over 6.5 Points
Typical price −1306 sportsbooksbest −125
Game log
Over 6.5Over 6.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3.2–18.6 points.
Home and away
L10 · Over 6.5Hometonight
80%
4 of 5
Away
80%
4 of 5
L10 · Over 6.5 Points
- Average
- 10.6
- +4.1 vs line
- Median
- 10
- +3.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 80%
- 8 of 10
- Price implies
- 57%
- −130, 6 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 63%
- estimate · fair −168
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −168, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 6.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 6.5 | Under 6.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada4 min ago | −125Best | −105 |
| DraftKings8 min ago | −129 | +101Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −130 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −130 | −103 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −132 | −104 |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −136 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:17 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −35001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −10001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| −4004 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −3202 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −1836 books | +1451 book | 8/10 | |
| −1306 books | −1034 books | 8/10 | |
| +1067 books | −1443 books | 7/10 | |
| +1532 books | −2101 book | 6/10 | |
| +1946 books | −2901 book | 6/10 | |
| +2651 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +3205 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +4501 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +5254 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +8503 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +17201 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +25003 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +40001 book | — | 0/10 |
What moved our number
Pace−0.6%