Marcus Smart

Houston Rockets · G · #36

BOS @ HOUCeltics @ Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET

The line

Over 9.5 Pts+Ast

−1126 sportsbooksbest −110

Game log

Over 9.5

Over 9.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs HOU: 13, cleared
at HOU: 8, missed
at OKC: 19, cleared
at OKC: 19, cleared
vs OKC: 13, cleared
vs OKC: 8, missed
vs DAL: 12, cleared
at SA: 6, missed
at DAL: 12, cleared
vs OKC: 27, cleared

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 5.6–23.9 pts+ast.

Home and away

L10 · Over 9.5

Hometonight

80%

4 of 5

Away

60%

3 of 5

L10 · Over 9.5 Pts+Ast

Average: 13.7; +4.2 vs line
Median: 12.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; −112, 6 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −157

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −157, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
Bovada5 min ago	−110Best	−120
Bally Bet5 min ago	−112	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−112	—
DraftKings9 min ago	−112	−118Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−112	−118Best
betPARX5 min ago	−113	−121
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price