Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1942 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 29 of 46; with him: 32 of 43 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 16 of 21; with him: 45 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 6.4 threes made a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 3, missed, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 3, missed, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 38 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

3-Pointers Made: 1 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Under 1.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −194
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −192 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −165, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3132 books	—	3/10
+1452 books	−1942 books	8/10
+4492 books	—	8/10
+11662 books	—	10/10
+26001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+142	−192Best
DraftKings11 min ago	+148Best	−196
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −166 → −194 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits