Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1272 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 7.5 without him: 17 of 46; with him: 18 of 43 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 15 of 21; with him: 20 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at MEM

70%7 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 11, cleared, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 9, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 15, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 8, cleared, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 21, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 12, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 11, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3.2–15.5 reb+ast.

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Reb+Ast: 1 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 7.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 7.5

Average: 9.9; +2.4 vs line
Median: 10; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8001 book	—	8/10
−1272 books	−1062 books	7/10
+2151 book	—	5/10
+5001 book	—	3/10
+17001 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel6 min ago	−125Best	−106
DraftKings12 min ago	−127	−104Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over −117 → −127 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits