Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Tomorrow 8:00 PM

Over Under13.5

Over 13.5 Points, typical price −1262 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 13.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 13.5 without him: 24 of 46; with him: 16 of 43 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 13.5 without him: 10 of 21; with him: 30 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 58.7 points a game to guards: 12th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Over 13.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 40, cleared, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 36, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 36, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 8, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 10, missed, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 11, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 22, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 20, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 12, missed, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 13.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 7.4–30.1 points.

Splits

Over 13.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 13.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Points: 7 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 13.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 13.5

Average: 20.2; +6.7 vs line
Median: 16; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −126
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −134

Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −134, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8601 book	—	9/10
−4072 books	—	8/10
−2171 book	—	6/10
−1262 books	−1032 books	5/10
+1052 books	—	5/10
+2061 book	—	5/10
+3382 books	—	5/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 13.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 13.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 13.5	Under 13.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−125Best	−106
DraftKings8 min ago	−127	+100Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

13.5

15.5 → 13.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits