Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1722 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 3.5 without him: 20 of 46; with him: 23 of 43 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 14 of 21; with him: 29 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 14.0 rebounds a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 5, cleared, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 3, missed, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 10, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 3, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 6, cleared, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 4, cleared, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 8, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.8–8 rebounds.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Rebounds: 0 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 3.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4.8; +1.3 vs line
Median: 4.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −172
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −146

Research, not a pick. At −150 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −146, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3681 book	—	9/10
−1722 books	+1142 books	7/10
+1381 book	—	5/10
+2652 books	—	3/10
+5101 book	—	2/10
+9002 books	—	2/10
+16001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings10 min ago	−150Best	+114
FanDuel5 min ago	−172	+128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:54 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over −150 → −172 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits