Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

UTAH @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Poole: Out (ankle)
Over 21.5 without him: 24 of 46; with him: 16 of 43 (89 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 21.5 without him: 11 of 21; with him: 29 of 68 (89 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 87.7 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 17th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29 min · 2025–26: 25.7 (82 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs UTAH, 2026-04-07: 51, cleared, 38 min
at BOS, 2026-04-10: 45, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 51, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 12, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 18, missed, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 18, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 43, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 32, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 23, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12.7–43.3 pts+reb+ast.

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 21.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Zion WilliamsonF
Jordan PooleGOut
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Pts+Reb+Ast: 8 in 24 min, Oct 23 (away)

Over 21.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 30.1; +8.6 vs line
Median: 27.5; +6 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −125 the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	8/10
−2031 book	—	6/10
−1251 book	−1061 book	6/10
−1041 book	−1271 book	6/10
+1421 book	—	5/10
+3881 book	—	5/10
+9601 book	—	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−125Best	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

−123 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits