The record

Are our chances honest?

When we say a pick wins 55–60% of the time, it should win about that often. Each row is every graded pick given a chance in that range, and how often it won.

v3's picks from Oct 7 to Nov 2 (the archive). v4's record does not have a calibration view yet: its picks are graded on the closing price and on money.

Matches v3's record exactly: 13,958 picks, 1,020 numbers compared, checked Nov 3 at 5:44 AM ET.

When we said…

9,354 graded picks · the band is what we said, the dot how often it won, the bar its 95% range

When we said 35–40%

it won 0% of 1

95% range 0–79%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 40–45%

it won 67% of 3

95% range 21–94%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 45–50%

it won 37% of 78

95% range 27–48%

In line with what we said

When we said 50–55%

it won 45% of 500

95% range 41–49%

Won less often than we said

When we said 55–60%

it won 56% of 5,109

95% range 54–57%

In line with what we said

When we said 60–65%

it won 58% of 2,705

95% range 57–60%

In line with what we said

When we said 65–70%

it won 65% of 847

95% range 62–68%

In line with what we said

When we said 70–75%

it won 72% of 108

95% range 63–80%

In line with what we said

When we said 75–80%

it won 100% of 3

95% range 44–100%

Too few picks to tell

Brier score (lower is better) over every graded pick: 0.2457. On the picks that carried a market price, ours was 0.2457 and the market's fair price 0.2398: the market called them better than we did.

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