The record
Are our chances honest?
When we say a pick wins 55–60% of the time, it should win about that often. Each row is every graded pick given a chance in that range, and how often it won.
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When we say a pick wins 55–60% of the time, it should win about that often. Each row is every graded pick given a chance in that range, and how often it won.
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Matches v3's record exactly: 13,793 picks, 994 numbers compared, checked Nov 2 at 8:19 PM ET.
Brier score (lower is better) over every graded pick: 0.2445. On the picks that carried a market price, ours was 0.2445 and the market's fair price 0.2397: the market called them better than we did.