The record

Are our chances honest?

When we say a pick wins 55–60% of the time, it should win about that often. Each row is every graded pick given a chance in that range, and how often it won.

v3's picks from Oct 7 to Nov 2 (the archive). v4's record does not have a calibration view yet: its picks are graded on the closing price and on money.

Matches v3's record exactly: 13,850 picks, 1,011 numbers compared, checked Nov 3 at 2:04 AM ET.

When we said…

662 graded picks · the band is what we said, the dot how often it won, the bar its 95% range

When we said 5–10%

it won 0% of 3

95% range 0–56%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 10–15%

it won 100% of 1

95% range 21–100%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 15–20%

it won 0% of 3

95% range 0–56%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 20–25%

it won 33% of 3

95% range 6–79%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 25–30%

it won 67% of 3

95% range 21–94%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 30–35%

it won 0% of 8

95% range 0–32%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 35–40%

it won 20% of 15

95% range 7–45%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 40–45%

it won 29% of 38

95% range 17–45%

In line with what we said

When we said 45–50%

it won 41% of 41

95% range 28–57%

In line with what we said

When we said 50–55%

it won 44% of 100

95% range 35–54%

In line with what we said

When we said 55–60%

it won 48% of 108

95% range 39–57%

In line with what we said

When we said 60–65%

it won 48% of 101

95% range 38–57%

Won less often than we said

When we said 65–70%

it won 65% of 65

95% range 52–75%

In line with what we said

When we said 70–75%

it won 46% of 74

95% range 35–57%

Won less often than we said

When we said 75–80%

it won 50% of 36

95% range 34–66%

Won less often than we said

When we said 80–85%

it won 59% of 17

95% range 36–78%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 85–90%

it won 67% of 18

95% range 44–84%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 90–95%

it won 80% of 10

95% range 49–94%

Too few picks to tell

When we said 95–100%

it won 33% of 18

95% range 16–56%

Too few picks to tell

Brier score (lower is better) over every graded pick: 0.2456. On the picks that carried a market price, ours was 0.2456 and the market's fair price 0.2397: the market called them better than we did.

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