Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Today 8:15 PM

Over Under17.5

Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price +1003 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at GB, 2025-12-27: 36, missed, 36 carries
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 20, missed, 20 carries
at IND, 2026-09-13: 24, missed, 24 carries
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 16, hit, 16 carries
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 26, missed, 26 carries
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 23, missed, 23 carries
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 24, missed, 24 carries
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 17, hit, 17 carries
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 17, hit, 17 carries
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 11, hit, 11 carries

Under hitMissedThe 17.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.8–23.2 rushing attempts.

What's different today

Under 17.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs running backs
JAX allow 17.6 carries a game to running backs: 31st most of 32
7 games
TodayRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Out, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Under 17.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 14 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 4 of 8
Carries
Last 3: 15 carries · 2026: 19.8 (8 games)

Splits

Under 17.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Under 17.5 hit in 1 of 2 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Rushing Attempts: 19 in 19 carries, Jan 7, 2024 (home)

Under 17.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Under 17.5

Average: 21.4; +3.9 vs line
Median: 21.5; +4 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at +100
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −106

Research, not a pick. At +100 the price beats our fair −106, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	1/10
−2783 books	—	1/10
−1303 books	+1001 book	4/10
+1161 book	−1461 book	4/10
+1483 books	—	4/10
+2603 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 17.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 17.5	Under 17.5
betPARX10 min ago	−130Best	+100Best
Bally Bet10 min ago	−130Best	—
BetRivers10 min ago	−132	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

17.5

18.5 → 17.5 since first seen