Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1021 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightQuarterback
Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season
Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Doubtful, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (led the last game). Over 7.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 18 of 28; with another BAL quarterback: 2 of 7
TonightRest
3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week
Defense vs running backs
JAX allow 36.3 receiving yards a game to running backs: 10th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 1.7 targets · 2026: 1.8 (8 games)
Target share: 6% last 3 games · 6% over 8 games this season

40%4 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

vs PIT, 2025-12-07: 8, cleared, 2 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 0, missed, 1 targets
at IND, 2026-09-13: 19, cleared, 1 targets
vs NO, 2026-09-20: 19, cleared, 3 targets
at DAL, 2026-09-27: 0, missed, 1 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 6, missed, 2 targets
at ATL, 2026-10-11: 18, cleared, 2 targets
at CLE, 2026-10-18: 2, missed, 1 targets
vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 4, missed, 2 targets
at BUF, 2026-11-01: 7, missed, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against JAX in his last 10; Over 7.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against JAX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs JAX

Receiving Yards: 6 in 2 targets, Nov 19, 2023 (away)

Over 7.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 7.5

Average: 8.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 6.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 50%; at −102
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Targets: 1.7; 10 games · 1.6 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 7.5 47%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1721 book	—	6/10
−1213 books	−1082 books	5/10
−1021 book	−1281 book	4/10
−1072 books	−1222 books	3/10
+1284 books	—	3/10
+2201 book	—	3/10
+3804 books	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−102Best	−128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:38 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−115 → −102 since first seen