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Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens · RB · #22

JAX @ BAL · Thu, Nov 5 8:15 PM
OverUnder82.5
Over 82.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 82.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • TonightQuarterback

    Lamar Jackson: Out (thumb). He led BAL in passing in 4 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Tyler Huntley 3 (Questionable, toe); Joe Fagnano 1 (Questionable, ankle, led the last game). Over 82.5 with Jackson at quarterback: 27 of 36; with another BAL quarterback: 3 of 8

  • TonightDefense vs running backs

    JAX allow 94.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: the fewest of 32

    7 games

  • TonightRest

    3 days off since Nov 1 at BUF: a short week

  • Carries + targets

    Last 3: 16.7 carries + targets · 2026: 21.5 (8 games)

    Target share: 6% last 3 games · 6% over 8 games this season

Game log against Over 82.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 82.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (1 of 3 at home).

  1. at GB, 2025-12-27: 216, cleared, 36 carries + targets
  2. at PIT, 2026-01-04: 126, cleared, 21 carries + targets
  3. at IND, 2026-09-13: 163, cleared, 25 carries + targets
  4. vs NO, 2026-09-20: 87, cleared, 19 carries + targets
  5. at DAL, 2026-09-27: 89, cleared, 27 carries + targets
  6. vs TEN, 2026-10-04: 79, missed, 25 carries + targets
  7. at ATL, 2026-10-11: 120, cleared, 26 carries + targets
  8. at CLE, 2026-10-18: 60, missed, 18 carries + targets
  9. vs CIN, 2026-10-25: 49, missed, 19 carries + targets
  10. at BUF, 2026-11-01: 60, missed, 13 carries + targets
ClearedMissedThe 82.5 lineCarries + targets

Count only

Over 82.5 · L10

Last vs JAX

Rush+Rec Yards: 153 in 19 carries + targets, Jan 7, 2024 (home)

Over 82.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against JAX on record

L10 · Over 82.5

Average
104.9
+22.4 vs line
Median
88
+5.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Carries + targets
22.9
10 games · 19.3 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 82.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1673 books—7/10
pick'em onlypick'em only6/10
−1131 book−1151 book6/10
−1143 books−1142 books6/10
+1803 books—4/10
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 82.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 82.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 82.5Under 82.5
Bally Bet14 min ago−114Best—
betPARX5 min ago−114Best−114Best
BetRivers2 min ago−115−115

Prices as of 8:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

82.5

83.5 → 82.5 since first seen

Derrick Henry's full game log and splits