Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under8.5

Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts, typical price −1074 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 8.5 Rushing Attempts cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at DAL, 2025-12-14: 12, cleared, 12 carries
at NYG, 2025-12-21: 21, cleared, 21 carries
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 18, cleared, 18 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 12, cleared, 12 carries
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 23, cleared, 23 carries
at TB, 2026-09-27: 17, cleared, 17 carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 20, cleared, 20 carries
at NO, 2026-10-11: 25, cleared, 25 carries
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 8, missed, 8 carries
at DET, 2026-11-01: 5, missed, 5 carries

ClearedMissedThe 8.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 3.9–23.4 rushing attempts.

What's different on Monday

Over 8.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 8.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 32
Defense vs running backs
BUF allow 22.0 carries a game to running backs: 21st most of 32
7 games
Carries
Last 3: 12.7 carries · 2026: 15.7 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Over 8.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 8.5

Average: 16.1; +7.6 vs line
Median: 17.5; +9 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	9/10
−1823 books	—	9/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/10
−1074 books	−1272 books	8/10
+1553 books	—	8/10
+3803 books	—	8/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 8.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 8.5 Rushing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 8.5	Under 8.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	−104Best	−127
Bally Bet5 min ago	−107	—
betPARX5 min ago	−107	−122Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−108	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

8.5

+100 → −107 since first seen