Aaron Jones Sr.
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 1.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
What's different on Monday
Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickMonDefense vs running backs
BUF allow 6.0 receptions a game to running backs: 2nd most of 32
7 games
MonTargets
Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 3.5 (6 games) · down 43%
Target share: 7% last 3 games · 12% over 6 games this season
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 1.5 with Murray at quarterback: 4 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 31
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Splits
Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 1.5
- Average
- 2.3
- +0.8 vs line
- Median
- 2.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 58%
- at −140
- Books’ fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 3.2
- 10 games · 3.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 55%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6701 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1401 book | +1061 book | 7/10 | |
| +2051 book | — | 5/10 | |
| +4901 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +9201 book | — | 1/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −140Best | +106Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:35 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Over: No move since first seen