Scoot Henderson

Portland Trail Blazers · G · #00

POR @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under16.5

Under 16.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

2 of his last 8 came with Shaedon Sharpe playing; Sharpe is out today. Without him: Under 16.5 in 17 of 33.

TodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 16.5 without him: 17 of 33; with him: 3 of 8 (41 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 16.5 without him: 2 of 2; with him: 4 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Minutes
Last 5: 22.8 min · 2025–26: 25.5 (35 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at DEN
3rd straight road game

54%7 of 13L20 · Without Sharpe

Under 16.5 Pts+Ast hit in 7 of 13 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).

vs MIL, 2026-03-25: 27, missed, 24 min
vs DAL, 2026-03-27: 12, hit, 22 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-29: 28, missed, 25 min
at LAC, 2026-03-31: 17, missed, 29 min
vs NO, 2026-04-02: 17, missed, 20 min
at DEN, 2026-04-06: 21, missed, 36 min
at SA, 2026-04-08: 22, missed, 38 min
vs LAC, 2026-04-10: 12, hit, 31 min (not counted)
vs SAC, 2026-04-12: 19, missed, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-19: 21, missed, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-21: 31, missed, 38 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-04-24: 22, missed, 36 min (not counted)
vs SA, 2026-04-26: 2, hit, 27 min (not counted)
at SA, 2026-04-28: 5, hit, 17 min (not counted)
vs PHX, 2026-10-21: 16, hit, 19 min
at SAC, 2026-10-23: 6, hit, 21 min
at LAL, 2026-10-27: 5, hit, 17 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-29: 9, hit, 19 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-31: 15, hit, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-11-02: 10, hit, 26 min

Under hitMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4.1–22.7 pts+ast.

Splits

Under 16.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 16.5 · L20

Deni AvdijaF
Damian LillardG
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Ja MorantGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Ast: 16 in 19 min, Oct 21 (home)

Under 16.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 16.5

Average: 15.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 16; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 54%; 7 of 13
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−8001 book	—	3/13
−1811 book	—	5/13
−1501 book	+1151 book	6/13
−1143 books	−1153 books	7/13
+1101 book	−1451 book	9/13
+1741 book	—	9/13
+5051 book	—	11/13

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Bovada9 min ago	−115	−115
DraftKings9 min ago	−114Best	−116
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

Under: −118 → −115 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Scoot Henderson's full game log and splits