Saddiq Bey

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #41

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1083 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at SAC, 2026-04-03: 1, cleared, 29 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 2, cleared, 39 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 24 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 22 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 25 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 0, missed, 24 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 4, cleared, 26 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 36 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 1, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 19; with him: 38 of 61 (80 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 3.3 steals a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 28.2 min · 2026–27: 26.5 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 2 of 3 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Bey didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; steals the last time Bey faced them: 1 (Feb 6)

Over 0.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1083 books	−1251 book	7/10
	+4003 books	—	3/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet1 min ago	−108Best	—
betPARX1 min ago	−108Best	−125Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−108Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:25 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −115 → −108 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Saddiq Bey's full game log and splits