Saddiq Bey

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #41

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under12.5

Over 12.5 Points, typical price −1216 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 12.5 Points cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at SAC, 2026-04-03: 20, cleared, 29 min
vs ORL, 2026-04-05: 32, cleared, 39 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 13, cleared, 24 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 20, cleared, 22 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 14, cleared, 25 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 26 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 10, missed, 24 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 25, cleared, 26 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 18, cleared, 36 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 22, cleared, 29 min

ClearedMissedThe 12.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9–27.5 points.

What's different today

Over 12.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 12.5 without him: 15 of 19; with him: 44 of 61 (80 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 38.0 points a game to forwards: 24th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 28.2 min · 2026–27: 26.5 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH

Splits

Over 12.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 12.5 cleared in 3 of 3 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 12.5 · L10

Jeremiah FearsG
Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Bey didn't play the Apr 12 meeting; points the last time Bey faced them: 30 (Feb 6)

Over 12.5 hit in 3 of 3 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 12.5

Average: 18.3; +5.8 vs line
Median: 19; +6.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −121
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −169

Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −169, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2656 books	+2051 book	9/10
−2001 book	+1501 book	8/10
−1555 books	+1101 book	8/10
−1216 books	−1125 books	8/10
+1044 books	−1601 book	7/10
+1533 books	−2101 book	6/10
+1604 books	−2751 book	6/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 12.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 12.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 12.5	Under 12.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−107Best	−119
Bovada5 min ago	−110	−120
Bally Bet5 min ago	−121	—
betPARX4 min ago	−121	−112
BetRivers4 min ago	−121	−112
FanDuel4 min ago	−128	−104Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

12.5

Over: −110 → −121 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Saddiq Bey's full game log and splits