Payton Pritchard

Boston Celtics · G · #11

BOS @ HOUCeltics @ Rockets · Mon, Nov 2 8:30 PM ET

The line

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made

−1366 sportsbooksbest −124

Game log

Under 2.5

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

at PHI: 6, missed
vs PHI: 1, hit
at PHI: 1, hit
vs PHI: 2, hit
at DET: 2, hit
vs NY: 1, hit
vs CHI: 7, missed
vs BKN: 0, hit
vs CHI: 3, missed
at ORL: 0, hit

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Home and away

L10 · Under 2.5

Home

67%

4 of 6

Awaytonight

75%

3 of 4

L10 · Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made

Average: 2.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; −136, 6 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −124 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
betPARX5 hr ago	−108	−124Best
BetRivers5 hr ago	−109	−125
FanDuel5 hr ago	+106	−136
Pinnacle5 hr ago	+109	−145
DraftKings5 hr ago	+115Best	−152
Bally Bet5 hr ago	−109	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price