Kyrie Irving
DAL @ SA · Today 9:30 PM
What's different today
Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 4.5 without him: no games; with him: 3 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 4.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 14.1 assists a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 28.8 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)
Game log against Under 4.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.
Splits
Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SA in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 4.5 · L10Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; assists the last time Irving faced them: 6 (Nov 16, 2024)
Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against SA on record
L10 · Under 4.5
- Average
- 4.1
- −0.4 vs line
- Median
- 4
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 60%
- at −152
- Books’ fair
- 56%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −141
Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −141, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −30001 book | — | 1/10 | |
| −4805 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −1866 books | +1451 book | 4/10 | |
| +1147 books | −1526 books | 7/10 | |
| +2205 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +4005 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +7502 books | — | 9/10 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −102 | −130Best |
| Bovada8 min ago | +115 | −150 |
| betPARX3 min ago | +114 | −152 |
| DraftKings8 min ago | +115 | −152 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | +112 | −155 |
| Pinnacle8 min ago | +119Best | −158 |
| Bally Bet8 min ago | +114 | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 3:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5−174 → −152 since first seen