Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1361 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs guards
SA allow 21.7 rebounds a game to guards: the most of 30
7 games
TonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 227.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Over 3.5 without him: no games; with him: 3 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Over 3.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at GS, 2025-02-23: 5, cleared, 32 min
at LAL, 2025-02-25: 7, cleared, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 9, cleared, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 5, cleared, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 1, missed, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 4, cleared, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 4, cleared, 35 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0.7–7.4 rebounds.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SA in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 3 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; rebounds the last time Irving faced them: 8 (Nov 16, 2024)

Over 3.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 4.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −136 the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1361 book	+1021 book	7/10
+3301 book	—	3/10
+11001 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−136Best	+102Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits