Kyrie Irving
DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM
What's different tonight
Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 2.5 without him: no games; with him: 2 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 7.6 threes made a game to guards: 14th most of 30
7 games
Game log against Under 2.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.
Splits
Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 2.5 · L10Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs SA
Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Irving faced them: 2 (Nov 16, 2024)
Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against SA on record
L10 · Under 2.5
- Average
- 2.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 2
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 50%
- at +100
- Books’ fair
- 47%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 49%
- estimate · fair +103
Research, not a pick. At +100 the price is worse than our fair +103, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −40001 book | — | 1/10 | |
| −4301 book | — | 3/10 | |
| −1321 book | +1001 book | 6/10 | |
| +1901 book | — | 7/10 | |
| +4501 book | — | 7/10 | |
| +9001 book | — | 10/10 | |
| +17001 book | — | 10/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel2 min ago | −132Best | +100Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Under No move since first seen