Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price +1041 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 7.5 without him: no games; with him: 3 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 7.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 28.8 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs SAC
Irving sat the last game (Nov 2)

40%4 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast hit in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

at GS, 2025-02-23: 9, missed, 32 min
at LAL, 2025-02-25: 11, missed, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 14, missed, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 8, missed, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 2, hit, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 6, hit, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 4, hit, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 12, missed, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 6, hit, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 13, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2.5–12.8 reb+ast.

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SA in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 1 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 7.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; reb+ast the last time Irving faced them: 14 (Nov 16, 2024)

Under 7.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 8.5; +1 vs line
Median: 8.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 49%; at +104
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 49%; estimate · fair +104

Research, not a pick. At +104 the price beats our fair +104, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1381 book	+1041 book	4/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−138Best	+104Best

Prices as of 6:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Under +106 → +104 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits