Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under20.5

Under 20.5 Points, typical price −1281 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightGame lines
DAL +12.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks): a big spread
DAL's games this season closed at 232.2 on average (7 games)
Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 20.5 without him: no games; with him: 3 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 20.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 56.0 points a game to guards: 15th most of 30
7 games

50%5 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Points hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at GS, 2025-02-23: 17, hit, 32 min
at LAL, 2025-02-25: 35, missed, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 25, missed, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 31, missed, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 7, hit, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 15, hit, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 24, missed, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 18, hit, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 15, hit, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 35, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 6.4–28 points.

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SA in his last 10; Under 20.5 hit in 1 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 20.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; points the last time Irving faced them: 22 (Nov 16, 2024)

Under 20.5 hit in 1 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Under 20.5

Average: 22.2; +1.7 vs line
Median: 21; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −128
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −128 the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−35001 book	—	1/10
−4601 book	—	1/10
−1301 book	—	5/10
−1041 book	−1281 book	5/10
+2201 book	—	6/10
+5401 book	—	7/10
+13001 book	—	8/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 20.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 20.5	Under 20.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−104Best	−128Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:24 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

Under −125 → −128 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits