Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Assists, typical price −1692 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Max Christie: Out (hip)
Under 4.5 without him: no games; with him: 3 of 5 (5 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 4.5 without him: 3 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
SA allow 14.1 assists a game to guards: 23rd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 28.8 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at GS, 2025-02-23: 4, hit, 32 min
at LAL, 2025-02-25: 4, hit, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 5, missed, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 3, hit, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 1, hit, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 2, hit, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 3, hit, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 6, missed, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 4, hit, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 9, missed, 35 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 2–7 assists.

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SA in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Max ChristieGOut
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; assists the last time Irving faced them: 6 (Nov 16, 2024)

Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 4; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −169
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −159 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −150, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16001 book	—	1/10
−4441 book	—	2/10
−1722 books	pick'em only	4/10
+1272 books	−1692 books	7/10
+2522 books	—	8/10
+4651 book	—	9/10
+8952 books	—	9/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings12 min ago	+120	−159Best
FanDuel2 min ago	+134Best	−180
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−174 → −169 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits