Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston Rockets · F · #10

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Points, typical price −1246 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 14.5 without him: 37 of 59; with him: 20 of 33 (92 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 37.6 points a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

50%5 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 22, cleared, 42 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 9, missed, 42 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 30, cleared, 36 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 7, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 14, missed, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 16, cleared, 39 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 14, missed, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 22, cleared, 35 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 30, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 14, missed, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.8–25.5 points.

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 14.5 cleared in 6 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Points: 16 in 40 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 14.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 17.8; +3.3 vs line
Median: 15; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −119 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −147, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5902 books	—	8/10
−2754 books	—	8/10
−1593 books	—	8/10
−1246 books	−1085 books	5/10
+1023 books	—	5/10
+1604 books	—	4/10
+2505 books	—	4/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−119Best	−107Best
Pinnacle6 min ago	−121	−109
FanDuel6 min ago	−122	−108
Bally Bet6 min ago	−124	—
betPARX6 min ago	−124	−108
BetRivers6 min ago	−125	−109
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

15.5 → 14.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jabari Smith Jr.'s full game log and splits