Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston Rockets · F · #10

MIN @ HOU · Tomorrow 8:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Assists, typical price −1404 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 1.5 without him: 37 of 59; with him: 17 of 33 (92 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 6.9 assists a game to forwards: 22nd most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 3, cleared, 42 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 3, cleared, 42 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 1, missed, 36 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 5, cleared, 39 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 2, cleared, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 2, cleared, 35 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 5, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 assists.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 6 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Assists: 2 in 40 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.5; +1 vs line
Median: 2.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −133, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	9/10
−1404 books	+1042 books	7/10
+2053 books	—	5/10
+5104 books	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel6 min ago	−138Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−139	+105Best
Bally Bet4 min ago	−141	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−141	+104

Prices as of 9:08 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−132 → −140 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jabari Smith Jr.'s full game log and splits