Desmond Bane

Orlando Magic · G · #3

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under25.5

Under 25.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1246 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 25.5 Pts+Reb hit in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 34, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 33, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 28, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 22, hit, 30 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 3, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 10, hit, 18 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 23, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 16, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 32, missed, 38 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 27, missed, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 23, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 20, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 19, hit, 38 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 23, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 7, hit, 27 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 28, missed, 35 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 18, hit, 34 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 30, missed, 39 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 21, hit, 40 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 23, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 25.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12–31.3 pts+reb.

What's different today

Under 25.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Under 25.5 in 8 of 15.

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 25.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 52 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 25.5 without him: 19 of 29; with him: 41 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)
Rest
2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 25.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 25.5 hit in 2 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 25.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Reb: 27 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 25.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 25.5

Average: 24; −1.5 vs line
Median: 23; −2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 55%; at −124
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −105 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−17202 books	—	0/5
−3755 books	—	1/5
−1325 books	+1151 book	3/5
−1096 books	−1244 books	3/5
−1051 book	−1251 book	3/5
+1905 books	—	4/5
+4152 books	—	5/5

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 25.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 25.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 25.5	Under 25.5
Bovada5 min ago	−125	−105Best
DraftKings5 min ago	−123	−107
betPARX2 min ago	−109	−124
FanDuel1 min ago	−106Best	−125
Bally Bet5 min ago	−109	—
BetRivers2 min ago	−109	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:38 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

25.5

24.5 → 25.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Desmond Bane's full game log and splits