Desmond Bane
ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM
Game log against Under 28.5
60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero
Under 28.5 Pts+Reb+Ast hit in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 13.5–34.7 pts+reb+ast.
What's different today
Under 28.5 · facts from past games, not a pick5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Under 28.5 in 8 of 15.
TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 28.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 42 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs guards
PHX allow 101.3 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
6 games
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 28.5 without him: 14 of 29; with him: 36 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)
Splits
Under 28.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against PHX in his last 20; Under 28.5 hit in 2 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 28.5 · L20Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHX
Pts+Reb+Ast: 32 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)
Under 28.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against PHX on record
L20 · Without Banchero · Under 28.5
- Average
- 27.2
- −1.3 vs line
- Median
- 26
- −2.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 3 of 5
- Price implies
- 57%
- at −130
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 62%
- estimate · fair −162
Research, not a pick. At −123 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −162, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7401 book | — | 0/5 | |
| −2154 books | — | 2/5 | |
| −1281 book | −1021 book | 3/5 | |
| −1034 books | −1303 books | 3/5 | |
| +1164 books | — | 3/5 | |
| +2704 books | — | 4/5 | |
| +6701 book | — | 5/5 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 28.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 28.5 | Under 28.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings4 min ago | −107 | −123Best |
| betPARX3 min ago | −103Best | −130 |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −103Best | −132 |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −103Best | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:01 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
28.527.5 → 28.5 since first seen