Desmond Bane

Orlando Magic · G · #3

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −2505 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 3, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 1, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 2, cleared, 32 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 1, cleared, 30 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 2, cleared, 17 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 1, cleared, 18 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 2, cleared, 35 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 2, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 1, cleared, 38 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 1, cleared, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 3, cleared, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 2, cleared, 38 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 2, cleared, 38 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 3, cleared, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 1, cleared, 27 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 35 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 1, cleared, 34 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 39 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 40 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Over 0.5 in 10 of 15.

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Over 0.5 without him: 10 of 15; with him: 53 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 15 of 29; with him: 48 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 5.2 steals a game to guards: 10th most of 30
6 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 7 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Steals: 1 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Over 0.5

Average: 0.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 71%; at −250
Books’ fair: 67%; margin removed
Our chance: 70%; estimate · fair −237

Research, not a pick. At −246 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −237, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2505 books	+1802 books	3/5
+1755 books	pick'em only	1/5
+5255 books	—	0/5
+15002 books	—	0/5

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−246Best	—
Bally Bet5 min ago	−250	—
betPARX1 min ago	−250	+180
BetRivers4 min ago	−250	—
FanDuel2 min ago	−250	+182Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Desmond Bane's full game log and splits