Desmond Bane

Orlando Magic · G · #3

ORL @ PHX · Live

Over Under24.5

Under 24.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1252 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%4 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 24.5 Pts+Ast hit in 4 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 32, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 31, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 26, missed, 32 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 24, hit, 30 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 6, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 9, hit, 18 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 22, hit, 35 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 14, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 25, missed, 38 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 23, hit, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 19, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 18, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 19, hit, 38 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 20, hit, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 5, hit, 27 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 24, hit, 35 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 17, hit, 34 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 34, missed, 39 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 20, hit, 40 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 23, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 24.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 10.2–30 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Under 24.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 9 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out yesterday. Without him: Under 24.5 in 9 of 15.

YesterdayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 24.5 without him: 9 of 15; with him: 44 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 24.5 without him: 16 of 29; with him: 37 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)
Rest
2 days off since Nov 2 vs WSH

Splits

Under 24.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 24.5 hit in 3 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 24.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Pts+Ast: 26 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 24.5 hit in 3 of 9 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 24.5

Average: 23.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 23; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 4 of 5
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 63%; estimate · fair −168

Research, not a pick. At −125 the price beats our fair −168, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−12201 book	—	0/5
−3052 books	—	1/5
−1052 books	−1251 book	4/5
+2372 books	—	4/5
+5831 book	—	5/5
+13401 book	—	5/5
+25001 book	—	5/5

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 24.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 24.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 24.5	Under 24.5
DraftKings9 hr ago	−105	−125Best
Bally Bet9 hr ago	−104Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

24.5

23.5 → 24.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Desmond Bane's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:13 PM ET.