Desmond Bane
ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM
Game log against Under 3.5
60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero
Under 3.5 Assists hit in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–4 assists.
What's different today
Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick5 of his 8 hits in the last 10 came with Paolo Banchero playing; Banchero is out today. Without him: Under 3.5 in 5 of 15.
TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 3.5 without him: 5 of 15; with him: 37 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 3.5 without him: 12 of 29; with him: 30 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 14.3 assists a game to guards: 20th most of 30
6 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)
Splits
Under 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against PHX in his last 20; Under 3.5 hit in 2 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 3.5 · L20Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHX
Assists: 5 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)
Under 3.5 hit in 2 of 9 games against PHX on record
L20 · Without Banchero · Under 3.5
- Average
- 3.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 3 of 5
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −129
- Books’ fair
- 53%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 63%
- estimate · fair −170
Research, not a pick. At −125 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −170, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −8354 books | — | 1/5 | |
| −2656 books | +1901 book | 2/5 | |
| −1057 books | −1296 books | 3/5 | |
| +2006 books | — | 4/5 | |
| +4005 books | — | 4/5 | |
| +7006 books | — | 5/5 | |
| +16402 books | — | 5/5 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada5 min ago | −105 | −125Best |
| DraftKings6 min ago | −105 | −125Best |
| betPARX5 min ago | −105 | −129 |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −105 | −129 |
| FanDuel5 min ago | −102 | −130 |
| Pinnacle6 min ago | +101Best | −134 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −105 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:55 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Under: −166 → −129 since first seen