Derrick Jones Jr.
MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM
What's different today
Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 27 of 39 (47 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 33 of 50; with him: 3 of 6 (56 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 5.7 threes made a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.4 min · 2025–26: 26.9 (50 games)
Game log against Under 1.5
40%4 of 10L10
Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 3-pointers made.
Splits
Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 1.5 · L10Darius GarlandG
Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Jr. didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Jr. faced them: 1 (Nov 3, 2025)
Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against MIA on record
L10 · Under 1.5
- Average
- 1.8
- +0.3 vs line
- Median
- 2
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 58%
- at −137
- Books’ fair
- 54%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −129
Research, not a pick. At −136 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4602 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +1043 books | −1373 books | 4/10 | |
| +3202 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +9002 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +21002 books | — | 10/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | +102 | −136Best |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | +104 | −137 |
| DraftKings3 min ago | +109Best | −143 |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
1.5Under −143 → −137 since first seen