Derrick Jones Jr.

LA Clippers · F · #5

MIA @ LAC · Today 10:30 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1384 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jordan Miller: Out (shoulder)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 27 of 39 (47 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Bradley Beal: Out (knee)
Under 1.5 without him: 33 of 50; with him: 3 of 6 (56 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 5.7 threes made a game to forwards: 5th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 29.4 min · 2025–26: 26.9 (50 games)

40%4 of 10L10

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 4 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs DAL, 2026-04-07: 1, hit, 23 min
vs OKC, 2026-04-08: 2, missed, 30 min
at POR, 2026-04-10: 2, missed, 23 min
vs GS, 2026-04-12: 0, hit, 21 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 26 min
at LAL, 2026-10-23: 3, missed, 35 min
at OKC, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 30 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-10-30: 2, missed, 26 min
at GS, 2026-11-01: 1, hit, 28 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Darius GarlandG
Rui HachimuraF
Keaton WaglerG
Jordan MillerGOut
Bradley BealGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Clippers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Jr. didn't play the Dec 1, 2025 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Jr. faced them: 1 (Nov 3, 2025)

Under 1.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −138
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −129

Research, not a pick. At −132 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −129, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4753 books	—	1/10
+1044 books	−1384 books	4/10
+3203 books	—	7/10
+8503 books	—	10/10
+20003 books	—	10/10
+35001 book	—	10/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel5 min ago	+100	−132Best
Pinnacle12 min ago	+104	−137
DraftKings12 min ago	+105	−138
Bovada12 min ago	+110Best	−145
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:32 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −143 → −138 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Derrick Jones Jr.'s full game log and splits