De'Anthony Melton

Golden State Warriors · G · #8

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1486 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%12 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 5.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 12 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at BOS, 2026-03-18: 3, missed, 23 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 4, missed, 23 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 6, cleared, 22 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 11, cleared, 23 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 12, cleared, 28 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 4, missed, 25 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 9, cleared, 26 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 5, missed, 23 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 9, cleared, 29 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 5, missed, 15 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 7, cleared, 28 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 5, missed, 19 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 20 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 10, cleared, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 7, cleared, 19 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 8, cleared, 21 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 9, cleared, 28 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 9, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 4–11.5 reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 24 of 41; with him: 5 of 16 (57 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 5.5 without him: 14 of 19; with him: 5 of 12 (31 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 5.5 without him: 14 of 23; with him: 15 of 34 (57 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 23.2 min · 2026–27: 23 (8 games)

Splits

Over 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 5.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Melton didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; reb+ast the last time Melton faced them: 12 (Dec 25, 2023)

Over 5.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 5.5

Average: 6.7; +1.2 vs line
Median: 6.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 12 of 20
Price implies: 60%; at −148
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −181

Research, not a pick. At −137 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −181, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−2404 books	+2101 book	15/20
−1486 books	+1124 books	12/20
pick'em only	pick'em only	10/20
+1151 book	−1501 book	10/20
+4404 books	—	3/20

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−137Best	—
betPARX2 min ago	−137Best	+102
BetRivers3 min ago	−137Best	—
DraftKings8 min ago	−148	+112
Bovada7 min ago	−150	+115
FanDuel2 min ago	−154	+116Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:59 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over: −138 → −148 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

De'Anthony Melton's full game log and splits