De'Anthony Melton
MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM
Game log against Over 3.5
60%12 of 20L20 · Without Butler
Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 12 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.5–8.2 rebounds.
What's different today
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 21 of 41; with him: 3 of 16 (57 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 3.5 without him: 12 of 19; with him: 6 of 12 (31 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 14 of 23; with him: 10 of 34 (57 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIA allow 18.1 rebounds a game to guards: 5th most of 30
8 games
Splits
Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA in his last 20; Over 3.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L20Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIA
Melton didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; rebounds the last time Melton faced them: 7 (Dec 25, 2023)
Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MIA on record
L20 · Without Butler · Over 3.5
- Average
- 4
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 4
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 12 of 20
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −152
Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −152, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L20 · Without Butler| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6703 books | — | 16/20 | |
| −2405 books | — | 14/20 | |
| −1187 books | −1126 books | 12/20 | |
| +1705 books | −2201 book | 8/20 | |
| +3005 books | — | 6/20 | |
| +5105 books | — | 2/20 | |
| +11602 books | — | 1/20 |
Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −112Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −112Best | −121 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −112Best | −121 |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −118 | −112 |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −122 | −108 |
| DraftKings5 min ago | −124 | −106 |
| Bovada9 min ago | −125 | −105Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:00 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5−104 → −118 since first seen